Nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards to be announced Tuesday, January 23, 2018
After many, many, many months of ups and downs, frontrunners falling to the wayside and films getting a last minute push, here are my final predictions for this year’s Oscar nominations.
all nominees listed in alphabetical order
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morbito
- DUNKIRK
Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan
- GET OUT
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm, Jordan Peele
- LADY BIRD
Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin
- THE POST
Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
if 8-10 nominees
- I, TONYA
Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie, Steven Rogers, Bryan Unkeless
- DARKEST HOUR
Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
- THE BIG SICK
Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel
Possible upsets: The Florida Project, Mudbound, Phantom Thread
The question here isn’t what the top 6 or 7 will be, it’s “how many will make the cut?” I have a feeling it will be 8, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see just 6. If it’s 6, I would imagine Call Me by Your Name and The Post fall out. If it’s 8, I’d throw in I, Tonya at this point – it’s been gaining strong momentum lately.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Guillermo Del Toro
- LADY BIRD
Greta Gerwig
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Martin McDonagh
- DUNKIRK
Christopher Nolan
- GET OUT
Jordan Peele
Possible upsets: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, Steven Spielberg for The Post, Luca Guadagnino for Call Me by Your Name
I know it’s not a common thing to see, but I’m betting the DGA lineup transfers 100% to the Oscar nominations. A surprise Benh Zeitlin-esque nomination would be welcome, but not at the expense of Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele. It would be extremely cool to see Sean Baker sneak in there in McDonagh’s stead. If Nolan is nominated, this will shockingly be his first; he was excluded for Inception in 2010 which I always forget.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Timothée Chalamet
- PHANTOM THREAD
Daniel Day-Lewis
- THE DISASTER ARTIST
James Franco
- GET OUT
Daniel Kaluuya
- DARKEST HOUR
Gary Oldman
Possible upsets: Tom Hanks for The Post, Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal for Stronger
With controversy surrounding both Gary Oldman and James Franco as of late, I toyed with a few other options, but they both seem so solidified here – Oldman especially – and voting was probably mostly over by the time the Franco story was public. Tom Hanks is the outlier, but he’s been excluded in the past for better performances. Denzel Washington is the true dark horse for a nomination in this category.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Sally Hawkins
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Frances McDormand
- I, TONYA
Margot Robbie
- LADY BIRD
Saoirse Ronan
- THE POST
Meryl Streep
Possible upsets: Jessica Chastain for Molly’s Game, Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul, Annette Bening for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World
These 5 ladies seem like such a sure-thing that it scares me. I was this sure of the lineup last year as well and Amy Adams’ slot was given to Ruth Negga. If anyone falls out it has to be Streep. But I’ve learned never to bet against her almighty power so I won’t be doing that again this year. I have such an inkling that Michelle Williams could steal a spot, but not enough to gamble on.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Willem Dafoe
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Woody Harrelson
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Richard Jenkins
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Sam Rockwell
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Michael Stuhlbarg
Possible upsets: Armie Hammer for Call Me by Your Name, Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water
This is very, very hard to predict this year. Do the Call Me by Your Name boys cancel each other out and leave room for Christopher Plummer to come in? That’s the biggest thought I’m having at this point, but I just know that Call Me by Your Name has such passionate fans and Stuhlbarg is a wonderful (yet-to-be-nominated) character actor who appears in 3 (!) Best Picture contenders this year that I’m putting money on him. Maybe it’s a lot of wishful thinking, but let’s go with it. Harrelson was the one I was doubting for a few weeks, but with SAG and BAFTA nominations and the swelling popularity for his film, it seems like a sure bet.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- MUDBOUND
Mary J. Blige
- DOWNSIZING
Hong Chau
- THE BIG SICK
Holly Hunter
- I, TONYA
Allison Janney
- LADY BIRD
Laurie Metcalf
Possible upsets: Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip, Kristin Scott Thomas for Darkest Hour
Beyond Metcalf and Janney, this is a toss up. Much like the two horse race in Supporting Actor, beyond those two ladies no one has been consistently winning prizes in this category this season. Some sort of amalgamation of the SAG, Globes, and BAFTA nominations works here, I guess. I’ve been predicting Hunter for a long time now and even though I’m not sure that predicting The Big Sick is going to pay off for me in multiple categories, I’m sticking with it. Blige seems likely at this point and Hong Chau, even though I hate her film and have major problems with her character, is a wonderful actress and would be only the 3rd Asian actress nominated in this category (after Miyoshi Umeki in 1957 and Rinko Kikuchi in 2006). I try to never doubt the Academy’s love for Octavia Spencer after her completely meh nomination for last year’s Hidden Figures. A Lesley Manville or Tiffany Haddish nomination would have me overjoyed.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING – ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- THE BIG SICK
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
- GET OUT
Jordan Peele
- LADY BIRD
Greta Gerwig
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Martin McDonagh
Possible upsets: The Post, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread
This category is STACKED. To keep it short, the struggle I was having was dropping The Post for The Big Sick. I just feel like I’ve been seeing so much of Nanjiani this season that it would be such a lovely way to cap off his year. It’s a charming screenplay and I feel like it plays well with almost everyone. The Post, however, has the zeitgeist factor and not predicting it makes me worry, but hey. The dark horse is Steven Rogers for his I, Tonya screenplay – I can easily see that finding its way in somehow.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING – ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
James Ivory
- THE DISASTER ARTIST
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
- LOGAN
Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
- MOLLY’S GAME
Aaron Sorkin
- MUDBOUND
Virgin Williams, Dee Rees
Possible upsets: Wonder, The Beguiled, All the Money in the World, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder Woman
I had Wonder predicted in the fifth slot for a couple months now, but Logan seems like a more interesting pick so I’m switching to that last minute. With really great superhero movies this year, I feel like a lot of people will want to reward one somehow. I tried to find room for Wonder Woman, but Logan feels like the better choice. Deadpool almost got a nomination in this category last year – or at least it felt like it – and if a bad movie like that can get the attention I don’t see why Logan shouldn’t. The rest feel like safe bets, but it’s Call Me by Your Name that is the one to beat.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
- BLADE RUNNER 2049
Roger Deakins
- DARKEST HOUR
Bruno Delbonnel
- DUNKIRK
Hoyte van Hoytema
- MUDBOUND
Rachel Morrison
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dan Laustsen
Possible upsets: Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post, Wonderstruck
Welcome back to “Will Deakins Finally Win?” We’ve been playing this game for many years now and this is the closest he’s been since Skyfall in 2012. Unless Hoyte van Hoytema’s exceptional work on Dunkirk draws more voters because of the film’s realism and historical setting, it seems Deakins can finally win this year. The only worry is that Blade Runner 2049 is super sci-fi and the Academy can tend to not like that as much as they should. Mudbound is on the fence right now for me, but I think it gets in and makes history for having Rachel Morrison be the first female nominated in this category EVER. Fingers crossed!
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
- BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Jacqueline Durran
- DARKEST HOUR
Jacqueline Durran
- THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Ellen Mirojnick
- MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
Alexandra Byrne
- PHANTOM THREAD
Mark Bridges
Possible upsets: The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul, I, Tonya, The Post, The Beguiled
Feeling a little strange about predicting Jacqueline Durran to have a twofer here. Darkest Hour feels like something the Academy goes for in terms of classic period costume design, but The Post has that as well and I’m just not sure anymore. Leaning toward Darkest Hour right now, but won’t be surprised if it’s something else. People may be sleeping on Murder on the Orient Express in general, but I think this is the best place to predict it – I could see it sneaking in some other categories as well and becoming the Passengers of 2017.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
- BABY DRIVER
Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
- DUNKIRK
Lee Smith
- GET OUT
Gregory Plotkin
- I, TONYA
Tatiana S. Riegel
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Sidney Wolinsky
Possible upsets: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post, Blade Runner 2049
I’m a huge fan of Riegel’s work on I, Tonya and I feel really good about predicting it here. It’s maybe not the popular option right now, but I have good vibes. Baby Driver isn’t a Best Picture contender, but much like The Bourne Ultimatum, it feels like one of those films that will be nominated in Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Film Editing. It’s sharp and smart and it would be a much deserved nomination.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
- BRIGHT
- DARKEST HOUR
- WONDER
Possible upsets: I, Tonya, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Darkest Hour and Wonder seem like locks. The third slot could either go to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 or I, Tonya (which apparently played really well in the Academy’s makeup and hairstyling bake off last month). Veered towards I, Tonya for a while, but due to Suicide Squad‘s win in this category last year, I’m going with Bright.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
- BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
- BLADE RUNNER 2049
Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
- DARKEST HOUR
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
- DUNKIRK
Nathan Crowley, Emmanuel Delis
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
Possible upsets: The Post, The Greatest Showman, Phantom Thread, Downsizing
This is one of my very favourite categories. The excessively gaudy work in Beauty and the Beast is not to my tastes, but the Academy tends to go for the most production design instead of smart production design (see Alice in Wonderland). Much like Durran in Costumes, if Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour get in here, the team of Greenwood and Spencer will also be double nominated. Rare to have this happen twice? Unsure. Predicting it anyway. The Shape of Water is in my eyes the far away winner here. Dunkirk could fall out and leave a spot for any of the listed films in the upset section, but that would be a shame considering the amazing work that went into recreating the sets in that film.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE
- DARKEST HOUR
Dario Marianelli
- DUNKIRK
Hans Zimmer
- PHANTOM THREAD
Jonny Greenwood
- THE POST
John Williams
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
Alexandre Desplat
Possible upsets: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Victoria and Abdul, Blade Runner 2049
John Williams is always a safe bet, but I sure hope it’s for his work in The Post and not his rehashing of his Star Wars themes. Feeling pretty good about these 5, but Carter Burwell might be lurking right around the corner. We’ll see. I’m so smitten with Greenwood’s score that I might be completely clouded in my predictions. If he misses a nomination again (There Will Be Blood!), there’s something seriously wrong.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG
- BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
“Evermore” by Alan Menken, Tim Rice
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
“Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens
- COCO
“Remember Me” by Robert Lopez, Kristen Anderson-Lopez
- THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
“This is Me” by Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
- MUDBOUND
“Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson
Possible upsets: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “Prayers for This World” from Cries for Syria, “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me by Your Name, “You Shouldn’t Look at Me That Way” from Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
A notoriously difficult category to predict since they tend to get it either way wrong or throw us some major curveballs. I didn’t see J. Ralph’s name on any of the 70 titles in contention otherwise I’d be predicting him here since he surprised three times in the past 6 years with nominations in this category. Betting against Diane Warren and Common’s track may prove to be silly, but I honestly think Blige can get two nominations this year. Worried for Sufjan here, but I have faith people will do the right thing. Are we underestimating Elvis Costello?
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
- BABY DRIVER
- BLADE RUNNER 2049
- DUNKIRK
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
- STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Possible upsets: War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Get Out
Would be amazing to see films with creative sound editing like mother! or Phantom Thread sneak in here, but these 5 just seem right.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
- BABY DRIVER
- BLADE RUNNER 2049
- DUNKIRK
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
- STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Possible upsets: War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, The Greatest Showman, Get Out
A musical like The Greatest Showman can often find its way into this category, but I just don’t know which of the 5 it would knock out. Since it’s not super popular like musicals in past years, I’m sticking with these 5. Would be super cool to see Wonder Woman nominated here – I feel like it deserves at least a mention, but I couldn’t find a way to include it anywhere. I hope I’m wrong.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
- BLADE RUNNER 2049
- DUNKIRK
- OKJA
- STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
- WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
Possible upsets: Guardian of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Shape of Water
Feeling risky so I’m predicting Okja. Wouldn’t that be amazing? The Shape of Water is a likelier contender especially given that it’s one of the Best Picture frontrunners and likely to be the most nominated film come nominations day, but I feel like a no guts no glory prediction in Okja coming true would just make me feel better.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- THE BOSS BABY
- THE BREADWINNER
- COCO
- LOVING VINCENT
- MARY AND THE WITCH’S FLOWER
Possible upsets: The Lego Batman Movie, Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, In This Corner of the World
Beyond Coco and The Breadwinner, I’m not sure what to think of this crop. It’s a weak year for animation which is why I’m throwing The Boss Baby in here. The Academy tends to lean towards American studio releases in this category, but I’m feeling like they’ll respect the work that went into Loving Vincent and will also appreciate the Ghibli-ness of Mary and the Witch’s Flower. I could be very, very wrong though. Any of the films in the upset section could get in.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)
Sebastián Lelio
- FOXTROT (Israel)
Samuel Maoz
- IN THE FADE (Germany)
Fatih Akin
- LOVELESS (Russia)
Andrey Zvyagintsev
- THE SQUARE (Sweden)
Ruben Östlund
Possible upsets: The Insult (Lebanon), The Wound (South Africa)
When a film as popular as The Square does so well in the precursors, I tend to abandon ship before predicting the Oscars. There are always surprises here – like them excluding BPM from the shortlist – so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if The Square falls away and leaved a spot open for The Insult. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised with any given lineup in this category. It’s so hard to say. Fingers crossed for A Fantastic Woman and Foxtrot though.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL
Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
- CITY OF GHOSTS
Matthew Heineman
- FACES PLACES
Agnès Varda, JR, Rosalie Varda
- JANE
Brett Morgen, Bryan Burk, Tony Gerber, James A. Smith
- LAST MEN IN ALEPPO
Kareem Abeed, Soeren Steen Jespersen, Stefan Kloos
Possible upsets: Icarus, Strong Island, LA 92
Also tricky to predict, but these 5 seem likely. The Academy has stiffed Steve James in the past so Abacus seems like the weakest link here, but I have faith they’ll give it to him this time around. Praying for Faces Places – Varda was a recipient of the Honorary Oscar this year and I’m hoping the love for her continues here for her magnificent film.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
- 116 CAMERAS
- ALONE
- EDITH+EDDIE
- HEROIN(E)
- TEN METER TOWER
Possible upsets: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets, Knife Skills
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
- CRADLE
- DEAR BASKETBALL
- IN A HEARTBEAT
- LOU
- NEGATIVE SPACE
Possible upset: Revolting Rhymes, Lost Property Office
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
- DEKALB ELEMENTARY
- THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK
- ICEBOX
- THE SILENT CHILD
- WATU WOTE / ALL OF US
Possible upsets: My Nephew Emmett, Rise of a Star, Facing Mecca
Tallies:
FILMS WITH MORE THAN 1 NOMINATION
THE SHAPE OF WATER (11)
DUNKIRK (9)
DARKEST HOUR (7)
THREE BILLBOARDS (6)
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (5)
GET OUT (5)
LADY BIRD (5)
BLADE RUNNER 2049 (5)
I, TONYA (4)
MUDBOUND (4)
THE POST (3)
THE BIG SICK (3)
PHANTOM THREAD (3)
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST (3)
BABY DRIVER (3)
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (3)
THE DISASTER ARTIST (2)
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (2)
COCO (2)
The Film Nook 