Nomination Predictions – 92nd Annual Academy Awards

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Here are my final predictions for the Oscar nominations which will be announced Monday morning:

all nominees listed in alphabetical order

 

PICTURE

best_picture

  • 1917
    Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Brian Oliver & Jayne-Ann Tenggren
  • FORD V FERRARI
    Peter Chernin, James Mangold & Jenno Topping
  • THE IRISHMAN
    Gerald Chamales, Robert De Niro, Randall Emmett, Gabriele Israilovici, Gastón Pavlovich, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Irwin Winkler
  • JOJO RABBIT
    Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi & Chelsea Winstanley
  • JOKER
    Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips & Emma Tillinger Koskoff
  • LITTLE WOMEN
    Denise Di Novi, Amy Pascal & Robin Swicord
  • MARRIAGE STORY
    Noah Baumbach & David Heyman
  • ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
    David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh & Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE
    Jang Young-hwan, Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae & Moon Yang-kwon

Possible upsets: The FarewellKnives Out, The Two Popes

DIRECTOR

  • Pedro Almodóvar
    PAIN AND GLORY
  • Bong Joon-ho
    PARASITE
  • Sam Mendes
    1917
  • Martin Scorsese
    THE IRISHMAN
  • Quentin Tarantino
    ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Possible upsets: Todd Phillips (Joker), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Awkwafina
    THE FAREWELL
  • Scarlett Johansson
    MARRIAGE STORY
  • Lupita Nyong’o
    US
  • Charlize Theron
    BOMBSHELL
  • Renée Zellweger
    JUDY

Possible upsets: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Antonio Banderas
    PAIN AND GLORY
  • Leonardo DiCaprio
    ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
  • Adam Driver
    MARRIAGE STORY
  • Taron Egerton
    ROCKETMAN
  • Joaquin Phoenix
    JOKER

Possible upsets: Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes), Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Laura Dern
    MARRIAGE STORY
  • Scarlett Johansson
    JOJO RABBIT
  • Jennifer Lopez
    HUSTLERS
  • Florence Pugh
    LITTLE WOMEN
  • Margot Robbie
    BOMBSHELL

Possible upsets: Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Tom Hanks
    A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
  • Song Kang-ho
    PARASITE
  • Al Pacino
    THE IRISHMAN
  • Joe Pesci
    THE IRISHMAN
  • Brad Pitt
    ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Possible upsets: Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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  • THE FAREWELL
    Lulu Wang
  • MARRIAGE STORY
    Noah Baumbach
  • ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
    Quentin Tarantino
  • PAIN AND GLORY
    Pedro Almodóvar
  • PARASITE
    Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won

Possible upsets: Knives OutBooksmartUncut Gems

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Adapted

  • THE IRISHMAN
    Steven Zaillian
  • JOJO RABBIT
    Taika Waititi
  • JOKER
    Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
  • LITTLE WOMEN
    Greta Gerwig
  • THE TWO POPES
    Anthony McCarten

Possible upsets: A Beautiful Day in the NeighborhoodJust MercyToy Story 4Hustlers

CINEMATOGRAPHY

cinematography

  • 1917
    Roger Deakins
  • FORD V FERRARI
    Phedon Papamichael
  • THE IRISHMAN
    Rodrigo Prieto
  • JOKER
    Lawrence Sher
  • THE LIGHTHOUSE
    Jarin Blaschke

Possible upsets: Once Upon a Time in HollywoodParasitePortrait of a Lady on FireA Hidden Life

PRODUCTION DESIGN

production_design

  • 1917
    Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales
  • THE IRISHMAN
    Bob Shaw & Regina Graves
  • JOJO RABBIT
    Ra Vincent & Nora Sopková
  • ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
    Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh
  • PARASITE
    Lee Ha-jun

Possible upsets: Little Women, JokerThe Lighthouse

FILM EDITING

editing

  • FORD V FERRARI
    Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland
  • THE IRISHMAN
    Thelma Schoonmaker
  • JOKER
    Jeff Groth
  • ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
    Fred Raskin
  • PARASITE
    Yang Jin-mo

Possible upsets: 1917Marriage StoryJojo Rabbit

COSTUME DESIGN

costumes

  • DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
    Ruth E. Carter
  • THE IRISHMAN
    Sandy Powell & Christopher Peterson
  • LITTLE WOMEN
    Jacqueline Durran
  • ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
    Arianne Phillips
  • ROCKETMAN
    Julian Day

Possible upsets: Jojo RabbitDownton AbbeyJokerJudy

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

MAKEUP

  • BOMBSHELL
  • JOKER
  • JUDY
  • MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL
  • ROCKETMAN

Possible upsets: Once Upon a Time in HollywoodDolemite is My Name

ORIGINAL SCORE

SCORE

  • 1917
    Thomas Newman
  • JOKER
    Hildur Gu∂nadóttir
  • LITTLE WOMEN
    Alexandre Desplat
  • MARRIAGE STORY
    Randy Newman
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
    John Williams

Possible upsets: Jojo RabbitPain and GloryUs

ORIGINAL SONG

song

  • BREAKTHROUGH
    “I’m Standing with You”
  • FROZEN II
    “Into the Unknown”
  • HARRIET
    “Stand Up”
  • ROCKETMAN
    “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
  • WILD ROSE
    “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”

Possible upsets: The Lion King (“Spirit”), Aladdin (“Speechless”)

SOUND EDITING

SOUND_EDITING

  • 1917
  • AD ASTRA
  • AVENGERS: ENDGAME
  • FORD V FERRARI
  • STAR WARS: RISE OF SKYWALKER

Possible upsets: Once Upon a Time in HollywoodRocketmanJoker

SOUND MIXING

SOUND_MIXING

  • 1917
  • AVENGERS: ENDGAME
  • FORD V FERRARI
  • ROCKETMAN
  • STAR WARS: RISE OF SKYWALKER

Possible upsets: Once Upon a Time in HollywoodJokerAd Astra

VISUAL EFFECTS

VFX

  • ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL
  • AVENGERS: ENDGAME
  • THE IRISHMAN
  • THE LION KING
  • STAR WARS: RISE OF SKYWALKER

Possible upsets: 1917Gemini Man

ANIMATED FEATURE

ANIMATED

  • FROZEN II
  • HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
  • I LOST MY BODY
  • MISSING LINK
  • TOY STORY 4

Possible upsets: AbominableWeathering with YouKlaus

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

DOCUMENTARY

  • AMERICAN FACTORY
  • THE CAVE
  • FOR SAMA
  • HONEYLAND
  • ONE CHILD NATION

Possible upsets: Apollo 11MaidenThe Biggest Little Farm

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

international

  • ATLANTICS
  • HONEYLAND
  • LES MISÉRABLES
  • PAIN AND GLORY
  • PARASITE

Possible upsets: Corpus ChristiBeanpole

 

Nomination tallies:

  1. THE IRISHMAN (10)
  2. ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD (8)
  3. 1917 (7)
  4. JOKER (7)
  5. PARASITE (7)
  6. MARRIAGE STORY (6)
  7. FORD V FERRARI (5)
  8. LITTLE WOMEN (5)
  9. ROCKETMAN (5)
  10. JOJO RABBIT (4)
  11. PAIN AND GLORY (4)
  12. STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER (4)
  13. AVENGERS: ENDGAME (3)
  14. BOMBSHELL (3)
  15. THE FAREWELL (2)
  16. FROZEN II (2)
  17. HONEYLAND (2)
  18. JUDY (2)
  19. A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD (1)
  20. AD ASTRA (1)
  21. ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL (1)
  22. AMERICAN FACTORY (1)
  23. ATLANTICS (1)
  24. BREAKTHROUGH (1)
  25. THE CAVE (1)
  26. DOLEMITE IS MY NAME (1)
  27. FOR SAMA (1)
  28. HARRIET (1)
  29. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (1)
  30. HUSTLERS (1)
  31. I LOST MY BODY (1)
  32. THE LIGHTHOUSE (1)
  33. THE LION KING (1)
  34. MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL (1)
  35. LES MISÉRABLES (1)
  36. MISSING LINK (1)
  37. ONE CHILD NATION (1)
  38. TOY STORY 4 (1)
  39. THE TWO POPES (1)
  40. US (1)
  41. WILD ROSE (1)

90th Annual Academy Award Nominations Predictions

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Nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards to be announced Tuesday, January 23, 2018

After many, many, many months of ups and downs, frontrunners falling to the wayside and films getting a last minute push, here are my final predictions for this year’s Oscar nominations.

all nominees listed in alphabetical order

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

best picture

  • CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
    Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morbito
  • DUNKIRK
    Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan
  • GET OUT
    Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm, Jordan Peele
  • LADY BIRD
    Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin
  • THE POST
    Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh

if 8-10 nominees

  • I, TONYA
    Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie, Steven Rogers, Bryan Unkeless
  • DARKEST HOUR
    Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
  • THE BIG SICK
    Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel

Possible upsets: The Florida ProjectMudboundPhantom Thread

The question here isn’t what the top 6 or 7 will be, it’s “how many will make the cut?” I have a feeling it will be 8, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see just 6. If it’s 6, I would imagine Call Me by Your Name and The Post fall out. If it’s 8, I’d throw in I, Tonya at this point – it’s been gaining strong momentum lately.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

best director

  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Guillermo Del Toro
  • LADY BIRD
    Greta Gerwig
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Martin McDonagh
  • DUNKIRK
    Christopher Nolan
  • GET OUT
    Jordan Peele

Possible upsets: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, Steven Spielberg for The Post, Luca Guadagnino for Call Me by Your Name

I know it’s not a common thing to see, but I’m betting the DGA lineup transfers 100% to the Oscar nominations. A surprise Benh Zeitlin-esque nomination would be welcome, but not at the expense of Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele. It would be extremely cool to see Sean Baker sneak in there in McDonagh’s stead. If Nolan is nominated, this will shockingly be his first; he was excluded for Inception in 2010 which I always forget.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

best actor

  • CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
    Timothée Chalamet
  • PHANTOM THREAD
    Daniel Day-Lewis
  • THE DISASTER ARTIST
    James Franco
  • GET OUT
    Daniel Kaluuya
  • DARKEST HOUR
    Gary Oldman

Possible upsets: Tom Hanks for The Post, Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal for Stronger

With controversy surrounding both Gary Oldman and James Franco as of late, I toyed with a few other options, but they both seem so solidified here – Oldman especially – and voting was probably mostly over by the time the Franco story was public. Tom Hanks is the outlier, but he’s been excluded in the past for better performances. Denzel Washington is the true dark horse for a nomination in this category.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE 

best actress

  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Sally Hawkins
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Frances McDormand
  • I, TONYA
    Margot Robbie
  • LADY BIRD
    Saoirse Ronan
  • THE POST
    Meryl Streep

Possible upsets: Jessica Chastain for Molly’s Game, Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul, Annette Bening for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World

These 5 ladies seem like such a sure-thing that it scares me. I was this sure of the lineup last year as well and Amy Adams’ slot was given to Ruth Negga. If anyone falls out it has to be Streep. But I’ve learned never to bet against her almighty power so I won’t be doing that again this year. I have such an inkling that Michelle Williams could steal a spot, but not enough to gamble on.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE 

best supporting actor

  • THE FLORIDA PROJECT
    Willem Dafoe
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Woody Harrelson
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Richard Jenkins
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Sam Rockwell
  • CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
    Michael Stuhlbarg

Possible upsets: Armie Hammer for Call Me by Your Name, Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water

This is very, very hard to predict this year. Do the Call Me by Your Name boys cancel each other out and leave room for Christopher Plummer to come in? That’s the biggest thought I’m having at this point, but I just know that Call Me by Your Name has such passionate fans and Stuhlbarg is a wonderful (yet-to-be-nominated) character actor who appears in 3 (!) Best Picture contenders this year that I’m putting money on him. Maybe it’s a lot of wishful thinking, but let’s go with it. Harrelson was the one I was doubting for a few weeks, but with SAG and BAFTA nominations and the swelling popularity for his film, it seems like a sure bet.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

best supporting actress

  • MUDBOUND
    Mary J. Blige
  • DOWNSIZING
    Hong Chau
  • THE BIG SICK
    Holly Hunter
  • I, TONYA
    Allison Janney
  • LADY BIRD
    Laurie Metcalf

Possible upsets: Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip, Kristin Scott Thomas for Darkest Hour

Beyond Metcalf and Janney, this is a toss up. Much like the two horse race in Supporting Actor, beyond those two ladies no one has been consistently winning prizes in this category this season. Some sort of amalgamation of the SAG, Globes, and BAFTA nominations works here, I guess. I’ve been predicting Hunter for a long time now and even though I’m not sure that predicting The Big Sick is going to pay off for me in multiple categories, I’m sticking with it. Blige seems likely at this point and Hong Chau, even though I hate her film and have major problems with her character, is a wonderful actress and would be only the 3rd Asian actress nominated in this category (after Miyoshi Umeki in 1957 and Rinko Kikuchi in 2006). I try to never doubt the Academy’s love for Octavia Spencer after her completely meh nomination for last year’s Hidden Figures. A Lesley Manville or Tiffany Haddish nomination would have me overjoyed.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING – ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

best original screeplay

  • THE BIG SICK
    Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
  • GET OUT
    Jordan Peele
  • LADY BIRD
    Greta Gerwig
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
  • THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
    Martin McDonagh

Possible upsets: The PostI, TonyaPhantom Thread

This category is STACKED. To keep it short, the struggle I was having was dropping The Post for The Big Sick. I just feel like I’ve been seeing so much of Nanjiani this season that it would be such a lovely way to cap off his year. It’s a charming screenplay and I feel like it plays well with almost everyone. The Post, however, has the zeitgeist factor and not predicting it makes me worry, but hey. The dark horse is Steven Rogers for his I, Tonya screenplay – I can easily see that finding its way in somehow.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING – ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

best adapted screenplay

  • CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
    James Ivory
  • THE DISASTER ARTIST
    Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
  • LOGAN
    Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
  • MOLLY’S GAME
    Aaron Sorkin
  • MUDBOUND
    Virgin Williams, Dee Rees

Possible upsets: WonderThe BeguiledAll the Money in the WorldVictoria and AbdulWonder Woman

I had Wonder predicted in the fifth slot for a couple months now, but Logan seems like a more interesting pick so I’m switching to that last minute. With really great superhero movies this year, I feel like a lot of people will want to reward one somehow. I tried to find room for Wonder Woman, but Logan feels like the better choice. Deadpool almost got a nomination in this category last year – or at least it felt like it – and if a bad movie like that can get the attention I don’t see why Logan shouldn’t. The rest feel like safe bets, but it’s Call Me by Your Name that is the one to beat.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

best cinematography

  • BLADE RUNNER 2049
    Roger Deakins
  • DARKEST HOUR
    Bruno Delbonnel
  • DUNKIRK
    Hoyte van Hoytema
  • MUDBOUND
    Rachel Morrison
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Dan Laustsen

Possible upsets: Call Me by Your NameThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriThe PostWonderstruck

Welcome back to “Will Deakins Finally Win?” We’ve been playing this game for many years now and this is the closest he’s been since Skyfall in 2012. Unless Hoyte van Hoytema’s exceptional work on Dunkirk draws more voters because of the film’s realism and historical setting, it seems Deakins can finally win this year. The only worry is that Blade Runner 2049 is super sci-fi and the Academy can tend to not like that as much as they should. Mudbound is on the fence right now for me, but I think it gets in and makes history for having Rachel Morrison be the first female nominated in this category EVER. Fingers crossed!

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

best costumes

  • BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
    Jacqueline Durran
  • DARKEST HOUR
    Jacqueline Durran
  • THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
    Ellen Mirojnick
  • MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
    Alexandra Byrne
  • PHANTOM THREAD
    Mark Bridges

Possible upsets: The Shape of WaterVictoria and AbdulI, TonyaThe PostThe Beguiled

Feeling a little strange about predicting Jacqueline Durran to have a twofer here. Darkest Hour feels like something the Academy goes for in terms of classic period costume design, but The Post has that as well and I’m just not sure anymore. Leaning toward Darkest Hour right now, but won’t be surprised if it’s something else. People may be sleeping on Murder on the Orient Express in general, but I think this is the best place to predict it – I could see it sneaking in some other categories as well and becoming the Passengers of 2017.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

best editing

  • BABY DRIVER
    Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
  • DUNKIRK
    Lee Smith
  • GET OUT
    Gregory Plotkin
  • I, TONYA
    Tatiana S. Riegel
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Sidney Wolinsky

Possible upsets: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriThe PostBlade Runner 2049

I’m a huge fan of Riegel’s work on I, Tonya and I feel really good about predicting it here. It’s maybe not the popular option right now, but I have good vibes. Baby Driver isn’t a Best Picture contender, but much like The Bourne Ultimatum, it feels like one of those films that will be nominated in Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Film Editing. It’s sharp and smart and it would be a much deserved nomination.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

best makeup

  • BRIGHT
  • DARKEST HOUR
  • WONDER

Possible upsets: I, TonyaGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Darkest Hour and Wonder seem like locks. The third slot could either go to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 or I, Tonya (which apparently played really well in the Academy’s makeup and hairstyling bake off last month). Veered towards I, Tonya for a while, but due to Suicide Squad‘s win in this category last year, I’m going with Bright.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

best production design

  • BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
    Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
  • BLADE RUNNER 2049
    Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
  • DARKEST HOUR
    Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
  • DUNKIRK
    Nathan Crowley, Emmanuel Delis
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Possible upsets: The PostThe Greatest ShowmanPhantom ThreadDownsizing

This is one of my very favourite categories. The excessively gaudy work in Beauty and the Beast is not to my tastes, but the Academy tends to go for the most production design instead of smart production design (see Alice in Wonderland). Much like Durran in Costumes, if Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour get in here, the team of Greenwood and Spencer will also be double nominated. Rare to have this happen twice? Unsure. Predicting it anyway. The Shape of Water is in my eyes the far away winner here. Dunkirk could fall out and leave a spot for any of the listed films in the upset section, but that would be a shame considering the amazing work that went into recreating the sets in that film.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE 

best original score

  • DARKEST HOUR
    Dario Marianelli
  • DUNKIRK
    Hans Zimmer
  • PHANTOM THREAD
    Jonny Greenwood
  • THE POST
    John Williams
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
    Alexandre Desplat

Possible upsets: Star Wars: The Last JediThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriVictoria and AbdulBlade Runner 2049

John Williams is always a safe bet, but I sure hope it’s for his work in The Post and not his rehashing of his Star Wars themes. Feeling pretty good about these 5, but Carter Burwell might be lurking right around the corner. We’ll see. I’m so smitten with Greenwood’s score that I might be completely clouded in my predictions. If he misses a nomination again (There Will Be Blood!), there’s something seriously wrong.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG

best original song

  • BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
    “Evermore” by Alan Menken, Tim Rice
  • CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
    “Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens
  • COCO
    “Remember Me” by Robert Lopez, Kristen Anderson-Lopez
  • THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
    “This is Me” by Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
  • MUDBOUND
    “Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson

Possible upsets: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “Prayers for This World” from Cries for Syria, “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me by Your Name, “You Shouldn’t Look at Me That Way” from Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

A notoriously difficult category to predict since they tend to get it either way wrong or throw us some major curveballs. I didn’t see J. Ralph’s name on any of the 70 titles in contention otherwise I’d be predicting him here since he surprised three times in the past 6 years with nominations in this category. Betting against Diane Warren and Common’s track may prove to be silly, but I honestly think Blige can get two nominations this year. Worried for Sufjan here, but I have faith people will do the right thing. Are we underestimating Elvis Costello?

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING

best sound editing

  • BABY DRIVER
  • BLADE RUNNER 2049
  • DUNKIRK
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
  • STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

Possible upsets: War for the Planet of the ApesWonder WomanGet Out

Would be amazing to see films with creative sound editing like mother! or Phantom Thread sneak in here, but these 5 just seem right.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING

best sound mixing

  • BABY DRIVER
  • BLADE RUNNER 2049
  • DUNKIRK
  • THE SHAPE OF WATER
  • STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

Possible upsets: War for the Planet of the ApesWonder WomanThe Greatest ShowmanGet Out

A musical like The Greatest Showman can often find its way into this category, but I just don’t know which of the 5 it would knock out. Since it’s not super popular like musicals in past years, I’m sticking with these 5. Would be super cool to see Wonder Woman nominated here – I feel like it deserves at least a mention, but I couldn’t find a way to include it anywhere. I hope I’m wrong.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

best visual effects

  • BLADE RUNNER 2049
  • DUNKIRK
  • OKJA
  • STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
  • WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

Possible upsets: Guardian of the Galaxy Vol. 2The Shape of Water

Feeling risky so I’m predicting Okja. Wouldn’t that be amazing? The Shape of Water is a likelier contender especially given that it’s one of the Best Picture frontrunners and likely to be the most nominated film come nominations day, but I feel like a no guts no glory prediction in Okja coming true would just make me feel better.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

best animated film

  • THE BOSS BABY
  • THE BREADWINNER
  • COCO
  • LOVING VINCENT
  • MARY AND THE WITCH’S FLOWER

Possible upsets: The Lego Batman MovieFerdinandDespicable Me 3In This Corner of the World

Beyond Coco and The Breadwinner, I’m not sure what to think of this crop. It’s a weak year for animation which is why I’m throwing The Boss Baby in here. The Academy tends to lean towards American studio releases in this category, but I’m feeling like they’ll respect the work that went into Loving Vincent and will also appreciate the Ghibli-ness of Mary and the Witch’s Flower. I could be very, very wrong though. Any of the films in the upset section could get in.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

best foreign film

  • A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)
    Sebastián Lelio
  • FOXTROT (Israel)
    Samuel Maoz
  • IN THE FADE (Germany)
    Fatih Akin
  • LOVELESS (Russia)
    Andrey Zvyagintsev
  • THE SQUARE (Sweden)
    Ruben Östlund

Possible upsets: The Insult (Lebanon), The Wound (South Africa)

When a film as popular as The Square does so well in the precursors, I tend to abandon ship before predicting the Oscars. There are always surprises here – like them excluding BPM from the shortlist – so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if The Square falls away and leaved a spot open for The Insult. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised with any given lineup in this category. It’s so hard to say. Fingers crossed for A Fantastic Woman and Foxtrot though.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

best documentary

  • ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL
    Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
  • CITY OF GHOSTS
    Matthew Heineman
  • FACES PLACES
    Agnès Varda, JR, Rosalie Varda
  • JANE
    Brett Morgen, Bryan Burk, Tony Gerber, James A. Smith
  • LAST MEN IN ALEPPO
    Kareem Abeed, Soeren Steen Jespersen, Stefan Kloos

Possible upsets: IcarusStrong IslandLA 92

Also tricky to predict, but these 5 seem likely. The Academy has stiffed Steve James in the past so Abacus seems like the weakest link here, but I have faith they’ll give it to him this time around. Praying for Faces Places – Varda was a recipient of the Honorary Oscar this year and I’m hoping the love for her continues here for her magnificent film.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

best doc short

  • 116 CAMERAS
  • ALONE
  • EDITH+EDDIE
  • HEROIN(E)
  • TEN METER TOWER

Possible upsets: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405Kayayo: The Living Shopping BasketsKnife Skills

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

best animated short

  • CRADLE
  • DEAR BASKETBALL
  • IN A HEARTBEAT
  • LOU
  • NEGATIVE SPACE

Possible upset: Revolting RhymesLost Property Office

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

best live action short

  • DEKALB ELEMENTARY
  • THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK
  • ICEBOX
  • THE SILENT CHILD
  • WATU WOTE / ALL OF US

Possible upsets: My Nephew EmmettRise of a StarFacing Mecca

Tallies:
FILMS WITH MORE THAN 1 NOMINATION

THE SHAPE OF WATER (11)
DUNKIRK (9)
DARKEST HOUR (7)
THREE BILLBOARDS (6)
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (5)
GET OUT (5)
LADY BIRD (5)
BLADE RUNNER 2049 (5)
I, TONYA (4)
MUDBOUND (4)
THE POST (3)
THE BIG SICK (3)
PHANTOM THREAD (3)
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST (3)
BABY DRIVER (3)
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (3)
THE DISASTER ARTIST (2)
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (2)
COCO (2)

89th Annual Academy Award Nomination Predictions

* all nominees listed alphabetically, not likelihood of winning

moonlight

Best Motion Picture of the Year

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
  • Silence

Likely Upsets: Nocturnal Animals Jackie

Best Achievement in Directing

  • Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  • Garth Davis, Lion
  • Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Likely Upsets: Martin Scorsese, Silence / David McKenzie, Hell or High Water / Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals / Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

  • Amy Adams, Arrival
  • Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  • Natalie Portman, Jackie
  • Emma Stone, La La Land
  • Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Likely Upsets: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women / Ruth Negga, Loving / Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures / Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

  • Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington, Fences

Likely Upsets: Joel Edgerton, Loving / Tom Hanks, Sully / Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Viola Davis, Fences
  • Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman, Lion
  • Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Likely Upsets: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women / Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  • Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel, Lion

Likely Upsets: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals / Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals / Issey Ogata, Silence / Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Achievement in Writing – Original Screenplay

  • Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  • Efthymis Filippou & Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
  • Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  • Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
  • Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Likely Upsets: Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic / Noah Oppenheim, Jackie / Jared Bush & Phil Johnston, Zootopia

Best Achievement in Writing – Adapted Screenplay

  • Luke Davies, Lion
  • Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
  • Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  • Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  • Allison Schroeder & Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Likely Upsets: August Wilson, Fences / Jay Cocks & Martin Scorsese, Silence

Best Achievement in Cinematography

  • Greig Fraser, Lion
  • James Laxton, Moonlight
  • Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
  • Linus Sandgren, La La Land
  • Bradford Young, Arrival

Likely Upsets: Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals / Stéphane Fontaine, Jackie / Simon Duggan, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Achievement in Costume Design

  • Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
  • Jo Sang-gyeong, The Handmaiden
  • Mary Zophres, La La Land

Likely Upsets: Dante Ferretti, Silence / Marion Boyce & Margot Wilson, The Dressmaker / Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship

Best Achievement in Film Editing

  • Tom Cross, La La Land
  • John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea
  • Joi McMillon & Nat Sanders, Moonlight
  • Joe Walker, Arrival

Likely Upsets: Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water / Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence / Bret Granato, Maya Mumma & Ben Sozanski, O.J.: Made in America

Best Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond

Likely Upsets: Deadpool Hail, Caesar! Suicide Squad

Best Achievement in Production Design

  • Stuart Craig & Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Jess Gonchor & Nancy Haigh, Hail, Caesar!
  • Jean Rabasse & Véronique Melery, Jackie
  • Ryu Seong-hie, The Handmaiden
  • David Wasco & Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, La La Land

Likely Upsets: Shane Valentino & Meg Everist, Nocturnal Animals / Patrice Vermette, Arrival / Alan MacDonald & Caroline Smith, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

  • Arrival
  • Doctor Strange
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • The Jungle Book
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Likely Upsets: Kubo and the Two Strings Passengers Deepwater Horizon Captain America: Civil War

Best Achievement in Music – Original Score

  • Volker Bertelmann & Dustin O’Halloran, Lion
  • Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
  • Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
  • John Williams, The BFG

Likely Upsets: Mica Levi, Jackie / Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story / Dario Marianelli, Kubo and the Two Strings / Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals

Best Achievement in Music – Original Song

  • “Runnin'” from Hidden Figures
  • “City of Stars” from La La Land
  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
  • “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
  • “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street

Likely Upsets: “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls / “Try Everything” from Zootopia / “Faith” from Sing / “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • The Jungle Book
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Likely Upsets: La La LandSilence Sully

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • The Jungle Book
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 

Likely Upsets: Arrival Silence Sully

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

Likely Upsets: Finding Dory Sing Your Name.

Best Documentary Feature Film

  • 13th
  • Cameraperson
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • O.J.: Made in America
  • Weiner

Likely Upsets: The Ivory Game The Eagle Huntress Fire at Sea

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove 
  • The Salesman
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann

Likely Upsets: My Life as a Zucchini Paradise It’s Only the End of the World 

Best Animated Short Film

  • The Head Vanishes
  • Inner Workings
  • Pearl
  • Piper
  • Sous tes doigts

Best Documentary Short Film

  • Extremis
  • Frame 394
  • Joe’s Violin
  • The Mute’s House
  • The White Helmets

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Nocturne in Black
  • The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf, and the Boy
  • Sing (Mindenki)
  • Timecode
  • The Way of Tea

 

Total nominations tally:

La La Land  – 13
Arrival – 8
Moonlight – 8
Lion – 7
Manchester by the Sea 
7

Hacksaw Ridge 
– 
5
Florence Foster Jenkins
– 5
Hidden Figures  4
Jackie 3
Hell or High Water  3
The Jungle Book – 3
Fences  3
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – 3
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – 3
The Handmaiden – 2
A Man Called Ove – 2
Deepwater Horizon  2
Moana  2
Nocturnal Animals  1
Silence  1
Elle  1
The Lobster – 1
Captain Fantastic  1
Star Trek Beyond – 1
Hail, Caesar! – 1
Doctor Strange – 1
The BFG – 1
Sing Street – 1
20th Century Women  1
Kubo and the Two Strings – 1
My Life as a Zucchini – 1
The Red Turtle – 1
Zootopia – 1
13th – 1
Cameraperson – 1
I Am Not Your Negro – 1
O.J.: Made in America – 1
Land of Mine – 1
The Salesman – 1
Tanna – 1
Toni Erdmann – 1
Weiner – 1

Final Predictions for the 87th Annual Academy Awards

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Birdman
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Under the SkinThe Immigrant

Best Achievement in Directing

Will win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Could win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Should win: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Jonathan Glazer, Under the Skin, James Gray, The Immigrant, Ava DuVernay, Selma

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Snubbed: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler, Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel, David Oyelowo, Selma

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could win: No one else
Should win: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night (although I am praying that Julianne wins)
Snubbed: Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars, Anne Dorval, Mommy, Essie Davis, The Babadook, Hilary Swank, The Homesman

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could win: No one else
Should win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Snubbed: Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could win: No one else
Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Snubbed: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer, Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Best Achievement in Writing – Original Screenplay

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman, Boyhood
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Love is Strange

Best Achievement in Writing – Adapted Screenplay

Will win: The Imitation Game
Could win: American Sniper, Whiplash
Should win: Inherent Vice
Snubbed: Gone Girl, Snowpiercer, Under the Skin

Best Animated Feature Film

Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6
Should win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Snubbed: None

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: Ida
Could win: Timbuktu
Should win: Haven’t seen enough to make a choice
Snubbed: Like Father, Like Son, Force Majeure, Mommy

Best Documentary Feature Film

Will win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga
Should win: Citizenfour
Snubbed: Haven’t seen enough to make a choice

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Could win: Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Should win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Snubbed: Darius Khondji, The Immigrant, Bradford Young, Selma, Rodrigo Prieto, The Homesman

Best Achievement in Editing

Will win: Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Could win: Tom Cross, Whiplash
Should win: Tom Cross, Whiplash
Snubbed: Douglas Crise & Stephen Mirrione, Birdman, Kirk Baxter, Gone Girl

Best Achievement in Production Design

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Mr. Turner
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Snowpiercer, Birdman, The Immigrant

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Will win: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Should win: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Patricia Norris, The Immigrant, Lahly Poore, The Homesman

Best Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Snowpiercer

Best Achievement in Music – Original Score

Will win: Jóhan Jóhansson, The Theory of Everything
Could win: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Snubbed: Marco Beltrami, The Homesman, Mica Levi, Under the Skin, Antonio Sanchez, Birdman

Best Achievement in Music – Original Song

Will win: “Glory,” Selma
Could win: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me
Should win: “Lost Stars,” Begin Again
Snubbed: None in particular

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Will win: American Sniper
Could win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman
Snubbed: Whiplash, Snowpiercer

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Will win: Birdman
Could win: Whiplash
Should win: Whiplash
Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Snubbed: Under the Skin

Best Short Film – Documentary

Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Could win: Joanna

Best Short Film – Animated

Will win: The Bigger Picture
Could win: Feast

Best Short Film – Live Action

Will win: The Phone Call
Could win: Boogaloo and Graham

87th Annual Academy Award Nomination Predictions

*predicting everything except the Short categories

Oscars

Best Picture

This is the only category I’ll list my predictions in order of likelihood.

  • Boyhood
  • Birdman
  • The Imitation Game
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Selma
  • Whiplash
  • American Sniper
  • Gone Girl
  • Nightcrawler

Likely Upsets: Foxcatcher, Unbroken, or Into the Woods

Best Director

  • Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ava DuVernay, Selma
  • Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Likely Upsets: Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), David Fincher (Gone Girl), or Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • David Oyelowo, Selma
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Likely Upsets: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), or Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Amy Adams, Big Eyes
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Likely Upsets: Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Hilary Swank (The Homesman)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Likely Upsets: Tom Wilkinson (Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Chris Pine (Into the Woods)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
  • Emma Stone, Birdman
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Likely Upsets: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), Laura Dern (Wild), or Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer)

Best Original Screenplay

  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Nightcrawler

Likely Upsets: SelmaMr. Turner, or The Lego Movie

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • American Sniper
  • Gone Girl
  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

Likely Upsets: Inherent ViceUnbroken, or Wild

Best Cinematography

  • Birdman
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ida
  • Mr. Turner
  • Unbroken

Likely Upsets: InterstellarGone Girl or The Imitation Game

Best Editing

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • The Imitation Game
  • Whiplash

Likely Upsets: Gone GirlThe Grand Budapest Hotel, or Interstellar

Best Costume Design

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Into the Woods
  • Maleficent
  • Mr. Turner

Likely Upsets: BelleGuardians of the Galaxy, or The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Foxcatcher
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel

Likely Upsets: Maleficent or The Theory of Everything

Best Production Design

  • Birdman
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Into the Woods
  • Maleficent
  • Mr. Turner 

Likely Upsets: Interstellar or The Imitation Game

Best Original Score

  • Gone Girl
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • The Theory of Everything

Likely Upsets: Unbroken or The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song

  • Begin Again (“Lost Stars”)
  • Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (“I’m Not Gonna Miss You”)
  • The Lego Movie (“Everything is Awesome!!!”)
  • Noah (“Mercy Is”)
  • Selma (“Glory”)

Likely Upsets: Big Eyes (“Big Eyes”) or The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (“Yellow Flicker Beat”)

Best Sound Editing

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Interstellar
  • Unbroken

Best Sound Mixing

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Into the Woods
  • Unbroken

Best Visual Effects

  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  • Godzilla
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
  • Interstellar

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Big Hero 6 
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • The Lego Movie
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Likely Upsets: The Book of Life or Song of the Sea

Best Documentary Feature

  • The Case Against 8
  • Citizenfour
  • Last Days in Vietnam
  • Life Itself
  • Virunga

Likely Upsets: Tales of the Grim SleeperKeep On Keepin’ On, or The Overnighters

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Force Majeure
  • Ida
  • Leviathan
  • Timbuktu
  • Wild Tales

Likely Upsets: Tangerines

Best & Worst Dressed: Emmys 2014

BEST DRESSED

  • Lizzy Caplan (Donna Karan Atelier)
    Lizzy Caplan
  • Uzo Aduba (Christian Siriano)
    Uzo Aduba
  • Robin Wright (Ralph Lauren)
    Robin Wright
  • Sarah Silverman (Marni)
    Sarah Silverman
  • Sarah Hyland (Christian Siriano)
    Sarah Hyland
  • Allison Williams (Giambattista Valli Couture)
    Allison Williams
  • Sarah Paulson (Armani Prive)
    Sarah Paulson
  • Christine Baranski (Zac Posen)
    Christine Baranski
  • Heidi Klum (Zac Posen)
    Heidi Klum
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Carolina Herrera)
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus

WORST DRESSED

  • Kerry Washington (Prada)
    Kerry Washington
  • Katherine Heigl (John Hayles)
    Katherine Heigl
  • Laura Prepon (Gustavo Cadile)
    Laura Prepon
  • Lena Dunham (Giambattista Valli Couture)
    Lena Dunham
  • Mindy Kaling (Kenzo)
    Mindy Kaling
  • Mayim Bialik (Oliver Tolentino)
    Mayim Bialik

How the 2014 Emmys Should Have Gone

I’m a huge awards show geek and I watch the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tonys like it’s my religion. That being said, last night’s Emmys were kind of disappointing. Seth Meyers proved to be a lacklustre host starting the evening off with quite the dull monologue. The winners all seemed to be repeats of previous years; it felt like I was watching the Emmys from 2009 again. Voters are aware that there are other shows on television besides Modern Family, right?

However, not everything was bad. Highlights include Amy Poehler as a presenter (“best onscreen orgasm in a Civil War reenactment”), Billy Eichner’s Billy On the Street segment, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Bryan Cranston’s moments together, countless unpredictable wins, Jimmy Kimmel essentially taking over as host, and the lovely In Memoriam segment with a great tribute to Robin Williams by Billy Crystal.

Network television ruled last night, cable fared better last week at the Creative Arts Emmys, and Netflix surprisingly bombed. The hit Netflix dramedy Orange is the New Black walked away with zero Emmys last night after almost every prognosticator expected it to take home a handful of statues. This is either a big middle finger to online programming or confusion due to category placement. The academy needs to set stricter rules in terms of where shows qualify to compete. True Detective is a drama series, but American Horror Story is a miniseries? What’s the difference? Orange is the New Black rides that fine line between comedy and drama, but so do shows like Nurse Jackie and Shameless (a show that finally gave up on campaigning as a drama series for years and made the switch to comedy this year). With all of the category confusion, voters once again went with the traditional comedy and lazy choice Modern Family for the top prize.

In my opinion, there were many undeserved wins, so here is how I think the Emmys should have gone last night. I would have given the awards to…

Best Drama Series – Game of Thrones Breaking Bad

Best Comedy Series – Veep

Best Miniseries – Fargo

Best Television Movie – The Normal Heart

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series – Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series – Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Louis C.K., Louie

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Best Lead Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie – Martin Freeman, Fargo

Best Lead Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie – Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series – Josh Charles, The Good Wife

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series – Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Tony Hale, Veep

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black

Best Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie – Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart

Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie – Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart

Best Variety, Music or Comedy Series – The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Best Reality Competition Program – Project Runway

Best Directing for a Comedy Series – Jodie Foster, Orange is the New Black (“Lesbian Request Denied”)

Best Directing for a Drama Series – Neil Marshall, Game of Thrones (“The Watchers on the Wall”)

Best Directing for a Miniseries or TV Movie – Adam Bernstein, Fargo (“The Crocodile’s Dilemma”)

Best Directing for a Variety Special – Glenn Weiss, The 67th Annual Tony Awards

Best Writing for a Comedy Series – Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche & Armando Ianucci, Veep (“Special Relationship”)

Best Writing for a Drama Series – Moira Walley-Beckett, Breaking Bad (“Ozymandias”)

Best Writing for a Miniseries or TV Movie – Noah Hawley, Fargo (“The Crocodile’s Dilemma”)

Best Writing for a Variety Special – Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles

and some awards that were given out last week at the Creative Arts Emmys…

Best Host of a Reality Competition Program – Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn, Project Runway

Best Directing for a Variety Series – Jonathan Krisel, Portlandia

Best Writing for a Variety Series – The Colbert Report

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series – Robert Morse, Mad Men

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series – Allison Janney, Masters of Sex

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series – Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series – Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black

Maybe next year there will be some new winners and fresh faces at the podium. With Breaking Bad gone for good, will it finally be Mad Men‘s turn to scoop up some last chance Emmys? Is Modern Family done ruining the comedy race? Will the tastes of Emmy voters develop and finally let a new show win the Emmy for comedy series? Let’s force voters to watch VeepOrange is the New BlackLouieParks and RecreationSilicon ValleyBroad City, hell, even Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Fingers crossed for better winners, a better host, and a Sunday night broadcast for the 67th Annual Emmys!